The Pittsburgh Pirates have had their share of ups and downs this year, but there have been more lows than highs. After being swept by the Chicago Cubs and eliminated from playoff contention this week, their record now stands at 65-88.
Regardless of how they finish the season, the Pirates have already lost more games than they did in each of the last two years, when they lost 86 games both times. They’ve guaranteed their worst record since 2022 — the season that gave them the chance to draft Paul Skenes in the first place.
After going 62-100 in 2022, Pittsburgh earned the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, which it wisely used on Skenes. While he didn’t pitch for them that year, the Pirates improved to 76-86 — their best record since 2018.
With Skenes debuting the following May, Pittsburgh should have been even better in 2024. Skenes immediately established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors after going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 5.9 WAR in 23 starts.
Despite Skenes’ instant brilliance, however, the Pirates had the exact same record (76-86) as they did the year before, suggesting that the rest of the roster had actually taken a step back. They went 15-8 when he started and 61-78 when he didn’t.
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The same thing has happened this year. Skenes is even better than he was last season, and yet Pittsburgh will finish with a worse record.
Skenes has unequivocally been the best pitcher in baseball this year, leading MLB with a 2.03 ERA, a 2.43 FIP and 7.2 pitching WAR. He’s made eight more starts than last year and given his team 48 2/3 additional innings — more than five full games’ worth.
And yet, the Pirates have only gotten worse. Their offense is the worst in baseball, which explains why they barely have a winning record (16-15) in Skenes’ starts this season. When he hasn’t pitched, they’re 49-73.
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Excluding Skenes’ starts, Pittsburgh went from a .469 winning percentage in 2023 to .439 last year to .402 this year.
The Pirates have not maximized Skenes’ generational talent thus far, but there’s still time. The two-time All-Star is only 23 and still under team control through 2029, so Pittsburgh still has a few more years to build around him.
The Pirates have already assembled a pretty good pitching staff around Skenes, so now they just need to add some bats. If they do, that should help halt their recent slide and get them back on track.
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Featured image via Charles LeClaire/Imagn Images