For the second week in a row, the Pittsburgh Steelers are home underdogs in a must-win game. Last week, they edged the Baltimore Ravens in their regular-season finale to clinch the AFC North and punch their ticket to the playoffs.
This week, they’ll host the red-hot Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round. The Texans are riding a nine-game winning streak and have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so it’s not surprising that they’re favored.
Even so, the Steelers still have plenty of trends and recent history on their side.
For starters, road favorites have not fared well in the playoffs recently. The last five road favorites in the NFL Playoffs are 0-5 straight up and against the spread.
Underdogs have also flourished in the postseason lately, especially in the Wild Card Round. Since 2017, all playoff underdogs are 60-38 against the spread, including 27-15 in the Wild Card Round.
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Pittsburgh also has an edge with former Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers. Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 64-25 against the spread as postseason underdogs.
The winter weather could give the Steelers an additional leg up as well. Over the last 10 years, dome teams such as Houston are 1-14 in the playoffs when playing on the road below 40 degrees.
What’s more, Pittsburgh hasn’t lost at home on a Monday since 1991.
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So even though the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade, bet against them at your own risk.
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Featured image via Katie Stratman/Imagn Images