Pirates’ Oneil Cruz Betting Favorite To Win MLB Home Run Derby

Oneil Cruz currently has the fewest long balls of all eight participants in this year’s MLB Home Run Derby. Las Vegas still likes the young Pittsburgh Pirates star’s chances of prevailing on Monday night.

The betting markets are banking on Cruz’s immense raw talent translating to the annual event. As of Saturday morning, Cruz is a narrow +310 favorite over Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (+320) to win the HR Derby on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cruz also opened as the favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook, but Raleigh pulled ahead with +280 odds over the Pirates slugger’s +300 after hitting his 37th and 38th home runs of the season on Friday night.

Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood is third with +500 odds on DraftKings and a +450 line on FanDuel. Matt Olson, who will replace Atlanta Braves teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. as the hometown representative at Truist Park, trails at +700 on DraftKings and +750 on FanDuel.

The only contestant not named a 2025 All-Star, Cruz is batting .208/.315/.413 with 16 home runs this season. The 27-year-old has touched them all once in nine games this month.

Strikeouts remain a problem for Cruz, but he’s rarely cheated when he makes contact. His 96.5-mph average exit velocity leads all qualified hitters, and he pulverized the hardest-hit ball (122.9 mph) of the Statcast era in May.

Cruz’s home runs have gone an average distance of 409 feet, matching Byron Buxton for the second-best mark of all HR Derby participants behind Wood’s 411. Only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki and two-time HR Derby champion Pete Alonso have a higher percentage of barrels per plate appearance than Cruz’s 12.1.

The underlying batted-ball data is so alluring that the betting markets are backing Cruz with the same gusto as Raleigh, who’s one home run away from matching Barry Bonds’ first-half record. Cruz would become the first Pirates player to win the event, which starts Monday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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